Aaahhh, the previous wars haven’t settled yet, the bodies aren’t cold yet and here we already are preparing the next one.
The sheer joys of living!
Eritrea is a friend of Russia nowadays. So Ethiopia is in trouble: Ukraine’s example shows that nobody wants to effectively help against Russia.
Excuse me?
You have seen the massive amounts of weapons going to Ukraine?
Help is going there. Saying nobody wants to help Ukraine is disingenuous at best, and just a flat lie at, well, not even worst, just normal.
Look, I know that it would have been awesome if Europe would send soldiers but there is this thing where you try not to make things worse. Putting European soldiers there might very well escalate the Ukraine invasion to something we will all regret
You have seen the massive amounts of weapons going to Ukraine?
No, I haven’t. But I am an engineer and therefore am capable to count to 100. I know even bigger numbers, so, let’s say, 15, doesn’t impress me at all. I wouldn’t call it “massive”.
Ethiopia purchases arms from Russia as well. Russia was supportive to Ethiopia in Tigray. Ethiopia has been a solid ally for Russia in the UN since the the war started. Ethiopia has a good relationship with Russia
Friends of Russia aren’t really doing too well these days. See Syria
But still, nobody would dare to help against Russia. If they don’t need help – good for them. I’m interested in more wars involving Russia and its allies.
Ethiopia has a better relationship with Russia than Eritrea and because, weirdly, Eritrea and Israel have a fairly good relationship, so my friends enemy is not necessarily my enemy, in this case, but a good contact to sell weapons to while I look for money to find my special military operation, and take my skim for you know, war effort. Also noted is that Ethiopia and Israel are fairly good friends, but I believe Israel operates some military out of Eritrea.
However, Russia will flip weapons to Ethiopia and Eritrea and watch them shoot it out. That being said, Ethiopia is the bigger monster when it comes to equipment because of its licensed manufacturing deal for old Soviet hardware, up to large field guns, I think, but is battle fatigued. Eritrea has far greater manpower of highly trained but poorly motivated and poorly equipped soldiers. Null sum game.
Also, they aren’t going to fight. Aferwerki has enough problems at home, and his own tenure is at risk. Age has caught up and younger upstarts are sensing blood in the water. So while his avenue is to distract with a ports war, conveniently, it is again, a null sum game.
All hail Somaliland. The new powerbroker and infrastructure operator in the region.
That whole region is impossible to see how it ends up. Ethiopia and Trigray. Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia and Somolia. Somalia and Puntland and Khatumo. Egypt and Ethiopia. Sudan hanging out in between with their own civil war. Then over time Rwanda is setting themselves up to try and be the Israel and may end up to varying degrees attacking everyone